On November 27-29, at the International Summit Forum of battery new energy industry, yuan Chengyin, general manager of the national new energy vehicle technology innovation center, said that the electrification of new energy vehicles is an inevitable trend in the future, but it is not only the electrification that represents new energy. In the next five to ten years, it may present a multi Yuan energy supply structure. Fuel cell, pure electric, hybrid and plug-in hybrid will jointly build a new energy Energy power mix.
Start deep shuffle
Since the second half of this year, the sales volume of new energy vehicles has been "four consecutive drops" on a year-on-year basis, and the growth rate of power battery production and sales has slowed down accordingly. According to the statistics of Research Department of power battery application branch, in October 2019, the output of new energy (4.870, 0.00, 0.00%) vehicles in China was about 82900, down 39.06% year-on-year and 8.51% month-on-month; the installed capacity of power battery was about 4.07gwh, down 31.35% year-on-year and 3.02% month-on-month, and the installed capacity of power battery fell for the third consecutive month year-on-year.
From the perspective of market reaction, China's new energy battery industry is not ready for the sharp decline of subsidies. The industry generally expects that in the short term, the downward trend of power battery market demand will be hard to change, and the power battery industry will enter a new round of deeper shuffle.
Although the new energy vehicle industry is in the cold winter, the vehicle electrification has become an irreversible global development trend. Yuanchengyin said that the technology of lithium battery is speeding up commercialization and is developing towards the balance of cost and performance. The ternary lithium battery has obvious advantages in energy density. At present, the main battery types used by the mainstream passenger car manufacturers are mainly the ternary lithium battery, while the lithium iron phosphate still has advantages in safety, price and life. Solid state battery is also an important direction of battery development in the future. Mainstream enterprises and R & D institutions all over the world are in layout, and semi-solid battery may take the lead in application.
Qi Lu, a professor at Peking University and chairman of the Davos Academic Committee of batteries, also believes that "all solid state batteries may be launched in three to five years, and security issues may be solved."
Yuanchengyin also said that fuel cell is also the main carrier of domestic hydrogen energy and fuel cell applications. Fuel cell vehicles have become the main development direction of new energy vehicles in China in parallel with pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles. To develop the application and development of fuel cell in vehicle terminal, to build a national level testing and certification laboratory of fuel cell, to solve the key technologies, to do a good job in personnel training and secondary development of technology has become the foothold of fuel cell industry and technology development.
Continuous attention should be paid to safety issues
Qilu said that China is already a big country in lithium battery manufacturing, but not a strong country. "All kinds of safety problems of our batteries, especially the lithium batteries with ternary materials, are actually caused by the difficulty in controlling the temperature of the batteries themselves." According to Qilu, China has made a major breakthrough in the research and development of positive materials for lithium batteries, and lithium ferrous phosphate and lithium batteries with ternary positive materials have developed rapidly in the past five years. However, due to its low energy density, low temperature rapid attenuation and other problems, the development of electric vehicles also encounter various problems.
Yuanchengyin pointed out that safety should always come first. With the increase of the number of electric vehicles, the safety accidents of electric vehicles are increasing year by year. Among them, when the electric vehicle is on fire, the static state accounts for 34%, the charging state accounts for 32%, the driving process accounts for 23%, and the impact spontaneous combustion accounts for 5%. Although the comparative analysis shows that the ignition probability of electric vehicles may be less than that of fuel vehicles, but the ignition of electric vehicles is mostly related to batteries. As a new industry, electric vehicles have a high sensitivity to fire events, so we must continue to focus on them and keep the industry developing healthily.
According to Jiang Wenfeng, deputy director of Shenzhen R & D center of lithium battery business group of BYD (43.390, 0.00, 0.00%) Co., Ltd., "with the reduction of subsidy intensity, the market-oriented trend of power battery will be more obvious."
Jiang Wenfeng said that in the route selection of lithium iron phosphate and ternary battery, lithium iron phosphate produced less heat due to decomposition reaction, slow heat release rate and easy to control out of control. However, the ternary material has high calorific value, which is more than 4 times that of lithium iron phosphate battery. When it fails, the heating rate is fast. The fire and explosion risk of ternary battery in the process of production and transportation is relatively high, so the requirements of fire-fighting facilities in the plant are more strict, and the fire safety cost is higher than that of lithium iron phosphate battery. With the improvement of technology maturity, the BOM cost of lithium iron phosphate battery will continue to decline, far lower than the ternary 811 battery, which is expected to become one of the important options in the post subsidy era.
Rao Zhongru, deputy general manager and CTO of beehive energy, believes that for a long time, the private consumer market has not accepted new energy vehicles very well, and many problems such as frequent fire accidents of new energy vehicles are difficult to be solved. To a large extent, it is because the power battery enterprises in China, including production and manufacturing, fail to meet the requirements of automobile application level in many aspects.